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The reprieve following the ceasefire in Gaza is immense. Within Israeli borders, the freeing of surviving detainees has resulted in widespread elation. Across Palestinian territories, celebrations are taking place as up to 2,000 Palestinian inmates are being freed – though anguish lingers due to ambiguity about who is being freed and where they will be sent. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, residents can now go back to search the debris for the bodies of an estimated 10,000 missing people.

Peace Breakthrough Against Earlier Odds

Only three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire appeared remote. But it has been implemented, and on Monday Donald Trump departed Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he participated in a high-level peace conference of in excess of 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The diplomatic roadmap begun there is due to be continued at a conference in the UK. The US president, working alongside international partners, did make this deal happen – regardless of, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dreams of Independence Moderated by Historical Realities

Expectations that the deal signifies the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are understandable – but, given historical precedent, somewhat optimistic. It offers no clear path to independence for Palestinians and risks separating, for the foreseeable future, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the complete destruction this war leaves behind. The lack of any timeline for Palestinian autonomy in the US initiative gives the lie to boastful references, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “golden age”.

The US president was unable to refrain from polarising and making personal the deal in his speech.

In a time of respite – with the hostage release, ceasefire and resumption of aid – he opted to reframe it as a morality play in which he solely reinstated Israel’s prestige after supposed disloyalty by previous American leaders Obama and Biden. This despite the Biden administration twelve months prior having tried a analogous arrangement: a ceasefire connected with humanitarian access and ultimate negotiations.

Meaningful Agency Crucial for Legitimate Peace

A proposal that withholds one side genuine autonomy cannot yield sustainable agreement. The halt in hostilities and relief shipments are to be welcomed. But this is not currently diplomatic advancement. Without mechanisms ensuring Palestinian involvement and command over their own institutions, any deal threatens freezing subjugation under the discourse of peace.

Humanitarian Priorities and Recovery Hurdles

Gaza’s people crucially depend on emergency support – and sustenance and pharmaceuticals must be the primary focus. But reconstruction should not be postponed. Among 60 million tonnes of wreckage, Palestinians need help reconstructing homes, learning institutions, medical centers, mosques and other organizations shattered by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to thrive, funding must be disbursed rapidly and protection voids be remedied.

Like a great deal of the president's diplomatic proposal, references to an international stabilisation force and a suggested “peace council” are disturbingly unclear.

Global Backing and Potential Developments

Strong worldwide endorsement for the Palestinian leadership, enabling it to take over from Hamas, is perhaps the most hopeful scenario. The tremendous pain of the recent period means the ethical argument for a solution to the conflict is possibly more pressing than ever. But while the halt in fighting, the homecoming of the detainees and vow by Hamas to “demilitarise” Gaza should be acknowledged as positive steps, the president's track record provides scant basis to have faith he will fulfill – or consider himself obligated to attempt. Temporary ease does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.