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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.